I often am asked the following question: “When do you expect the market to bottom out?” My answer is almost always some derivative of the following: “Predicting market bottoms is a fool’s errand. We will know when the market bottom has arrived a good three to six...
Have you ever been asked by your child an adult question and found yourself searching for the right answer? I usually start the answer with the classic, "well, it's complicated." But every once in a while, I find it useful to go through the process of answering that...
The other day I was sitting at an evening bar mitzvah party enjoying the good food and drink talking to friends about the state of the world. Here we were gathered at this joyous event, a bar mitzvah gala, celebrating a youngster thirteen years of age who had just...
When I was a teenager my parents taught me, repeatedly I might add, that if I intended on changing the results of my actions, I should consider changing my actions. Invariably, only through the experience of occasional failure would I learn this important lesson. In...
As the first half of this rather forgettable year is now done many of my clients are yearning to know when this volatile period is expected to end. If I was a lawyer, I would answer it in a simple way: it depends. But I’m not a lawyer (much to my parents’...
Perspective Most of what I do is review and analyze global macroeconomic conditions. I fancy myself as a “big thinker” probably due to my upbringing in the proprietary side of the institutional investment game. I tirelessly pontificate upon long-term themes and find...